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"representativeMarketId": "polymarket:0x05c206dde7998ebec5921b226c22c2a1e00634585372e7b9f41acf4323ed9093" }, { "key": "systematic-expansion/2026-08-25/kalshi/weather-company-unspecified-field/false/false", "panel": "systematic-expansion", "date": "2026-08-25", "venue": "kalshi", "primarySource": "weather-company-unspecified-field", "cityDays": 5, "markets": 30, "explicitDailyObservationsOverSummary": false, "explicitFallbackDeadline": false, "representativeMarketId": "kalshi:KXHIGHMIA-26AUG25-B94.5" }, { "key": "systematic-expansion/2026-08-30/polymarket/noaa-hourly-table/false/true", "panel": "systematic-expansion", "date": "2026-08-30", "venue": "polymarket", "primarySource": "noaa-hourly-table", "cityDays": 5, "markets": 55, "explicitDailyObservationsOverSummary": false, "explicitFallbackDeadline": true, "representativeMarketId": "polymarket:0x03f41b8ce33cba6fff50e6a20e284c0a1922a28d466c0e0b6510d57362fb5d15" }, { "key": "systematic-expansion/2026-08-30/kalshi/weather-company-unspecified-field/false/false", "panel": "systematic-expansion", "date": "2026-08-30", "venue": "kalshi", "primarySource": "weather-company-unspecified-field", "cityDays": 5, "markets": 30, "explicitDailyObservationsOverSummary": false, "explicitFallbackDeadline": false, "representativeMarketId": "kalshi:KXHIGHMIA-26AUG30-B87.5" } ], "cases": [ { "city": "Miami", "date": "2026-08-03", "station": "KMIA", "rawRows": 1500, "validRows": 1500, "missingMinutesInRequestedUnion": 0, "missingMinuteTimestamps": [], "requestedUnion": { "start": "2026-08-03T04:00:00.000Z", "endExclusive": "2026-08-04T05:00:00.000Z" }, "civilWindow": { "start": "2026-08-03T04:00:00.000Z", "endExclusive": "2026-08-04T04:00:00.000Z", "expectedMinutes": 1440, "returnedMinutes": 1440, "validMinutes": 1440, "missingMinutes": 0, "availableFiveMinuteWindows": 1436, "missingFiveMinuteWindows": 4, "completeMinuteCoverage": true, "completeFiveMinuteWindowCoverage": 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"maxTempFieldPresent": false, "unroundedMeanF": 89.6, "roundedMeanF": 90, "agrees": true, "reason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-03T16:53:00.000Z", "archivedSpotF": 91, "maxTempFieldPresent": false, "unroundedMeanF": 91.4, "roundedMeanF": 91, "agrees": true, "reason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-03T17:21:00.000Z", "archivedSpotF": 81, "maxTempFieldPresent": false, "unroundedMeanF": 81.4, "roundedMeanF": 81, "agrees": true, "reason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-03T17:31:00.000Z", "archivedSpotF": 78, "maxTempFieldPresent": false, "unroundedMeanF": 78.2, "roundedMeanF": 78, "agrees": true, "reason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-03T17:53:00.000Z", "archivedSpotF": 77, "maxTempFieldPresent": false, "unroundedMeanF": 77, "roundedMeanF": 77, "agrees": true, "reason": null }, { "timestamp": "2026-08-03T18:10:00.000Z", "archivedSpotF": 76, "maxTempFieldPresent": false, "unroundedMeanF": 75.8, "roundedMeanF": 76, "agrees": true, "reason": null }, { "timestamp": 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}, "mechanismAssessment": "sampling-and-averaging-hypothesis-supported-by-this-retrospective-reconstruction; venue-field-selection-not-proven", "fieldSelectionAtVenue": "unknown", "roundingAndTimingLimitation": "NWS documents rolling-five-minute averaging and whole-F storage; exact deployed software/version is not recovered. No half-degree ties arise from five integer-F inputs.", "capture": { "url": "https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/request/asos1min.py?station=SFO&vars=tmpf&sts=2026-08-03T07:00Z&ets=2026-08-04T08:00Z&sample=1min&what=download&tz=UTC&delim=comma", "fetchedAt": "2026-09-08T10:53:33.955533+00:00", "sha256": "891cca5fff51a67253269e6249562f797e3c23c08d0fe47300cb0137c4ccbbcd" }, "cli": { "maximumF": 78, "maximumAt": "2026-08-03T21:25:00.000Z", "source": { "url": "https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/api/1/nwstext/202608040829-KMTR-CDUS46-CLISFO", "fetchedAt": "2026-09-08T09:50:47.480032+00:00", "sha256": "aef94aee882a7b0c2cfc7f090b9b5197d9e8dee33328325177cd6b0d1bfcb2e5" } } } ], "derivedSeries": { "file": "miami-peak-timeseries.csv", "sha256": "a968d6060e03a1830423cbd0a00aaed98d1e26da656fc2542cb07ed03c6f1264", "rows": 240, "start": "2026-08-03T14:00:00.000Z", "endExclusive": "2026-08-03T18:00:00.000Z", "inputMinuteCaptureSHA256": "4ac9cb6c8a933cd55bff4a8c79abd161e5e5b345fd79ffc8d4a4b73ab47d96de", "inputSourceComparisonReportSHA256": "79d36e538168bc012bec7a9afbe5d9a66b92ab3c15cb40f0ed61dc5fd21562cc", "method": "trailing five consecutive integer-F minute observations, arithmetic mean then nearest whole °F; observations only at exact archived timestamps; emptyCSVcells mean unavailable, no interpolation", "role": "retrospective mechanism illustration; not venue determination evidence" }, "limitations": [ "The four cases were selected after opposite payouts were observed. These are dependent retrospective mechanism checks, not training validation or a prevalence estimate.", "Agreement of maxima and exact occurrence times supports sampling/averaging as a mechanism in the retained series; it does not identify which field either venue actually used or establish sole causation.", "Three minute traces contain gaps. Available-window maxima on those days are not proofs of complete-day trace maxima, even when they match the CLI.", "First four civil-day rolling windows lack pre-query warmup. LST windows start an hour later and have warmup when underlying minutes exist.", "Current documentation describes field duration but does not certify historical exact aggregation endpoints, rounding versions or source-message ancestry.", "Explicit observation-table instructions are present on later market descriptions and cannot be assigned retroactively to earlier contracts.", "NOAA Aug25 and Aug30 fallback language differs; no fallback invocation is assumed from primary-source unavailability or outcome labels.", "Original source audit and payout reports remain immutable inputs; this new evidence version does not rewrite their historical uncertainty." ] }