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        "positiveAtFivePercent": 55,
        "positiveAtTenPercent": 50,
        "distinctWeatherUpdates": 356,
        "distinctEntryBooks": 1312,
        "distinctMarkets": 261
      },
      "thinned": {
        "entries": 983,
        "observedExits": 190,
        "missingExits": 793,
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        "positiveAtTenPercent": 29,
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        "distinctEntryBooks": 983,
        "distinctMarkets": 261
      }
    },
    {
      "shares": 10,
      "horizonMinutes": 180,
      "original": {
        "entries": 1679,
        "observedExits": 235,
        "missingExits": 1444,
        "grossPositive": 86,
        "positiveAtFivePercent": 80,
        "positiveAtTenPercent": 77,
        "distinctWeatherUpdates": 356,
        "distinctEntryBooks": 1312,
        "distinctMarkets": 261
      },
      "thinned": {
        "entries": 609,
        "observedExits": 75,
        "missingExits": 534,
        "grossPositive": 29,
        "positiveAtFivePercent": 26,
        "positiveAtTenPercent": 25,
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        "distinctMarkets": 261
      }
    },
    {
      "shares": 50,
      "horizonMinutes": 5,
      "original": {
        "entries": 1675,
        "observedExits": 577,
        "missingExits": 1098,
        "grossPositive": 5,
        "positiveAtFivePercent": 2,
        "positiveAtTenPercent": 1,
        "distinctWeatherUpdates": 356,
        "distinctEntryBooks": 1308,
        "distinctMarkets": 261
      },
      "thinned": {
        "entries": 1296,
        "observedExits": 449,
        "missingExits": 847,
        "grossPositive": 4,
        "positiveAtFivePercent": 2,
        "positiveAtTenPercent": 1,
        "distinctWeatherUpdates": 309,
        "distinctEntryBooks": 1296,
        "distinctMarkets": 261
      }
    },
    {
      "shares": 50,
      "horizonMinutes": 15,
      "original": {
        "entries": 1675,
        "observedExits": 519,
        "missingExits": 1156,
        "grossPositive": 7,
        "positiveAtFivePercent": 5,
        "positiveAtTenPercent": 3,
        "distinctWeatherUpdates": 356,
        "distinctEntryBooks": 1308,
        "distinctMarkets": 261
      },
      "thinned": {
        "entries": 1182,
        "observedExits": 333,
        "missingExits": 849,
        "grossPositive": 7,
        "positiveAtFivePercent": 5,
        "positiveAtTenPercent": 3,
        "distinctWeatherUpdates": 283,
        "distinctEntryBooks": 1182,
        "distinctMarkets": 261
      }
    },
    {
      "shares": 50,
      "horizonMinutes": 60,
      "original": {
        "entries": 1675,
        "observedExits": 356,
        "missingExits": 1319,
        "grossPositive": 53,
        "positiveAtFivePercent": 44,
        "positiveAtTenPercent": 40,
        "distinctWeatherUpdates": 356,
        "distinctEntryBooks": 1308,
        "distinctMarkets": 261
      },
      "thinned": {
        "entries": 981,
        "observedExits": 184,
        "missingExits": 797,
        "grossPositive": 32,
        "positiveAtFivePercent": 26,
        "positiveAtTenPercent": 24,
        "distinctWeatherUpdates": 261,
        "distinctEntryBooks": 981,
        "distinctMarkets": 261
      }
    },
    {
      "shares": 50,
      "horizonMinutes": 180,
      "original": {
        "entries": 1675,
        "observedExits": 232,
        "missingExits": 1443,
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        "positiveAtFivePercent": 75,
        "positiveAtTenPercent": 73,
        "distinctWeatherUpdates": 356,
        "distinctEntryBooks": 1308,
        "distinctMarkets": 261
      },
      "thinned": {
        "entries": 607,
        "observedExits": 74,
        "missingExits": 533,
        "grossPositive": 27,
        "positiveAtFivePercent": 24,
        "positiveAtTenPercent": 22,
        "distinctWeatherUpdates": 186,
        "distinctEntryBooks": 607,
        "distinctMarkets": 261
      }
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": [
    "Entry-time-only thinning limits overlap within token/size/horizon; it does not select a trading signal or produce independent trials.",
    "The 32/40 fee-retention fraction conditions on already gross-positive observed moves; 793 of 983 selected entries have unknown planned exits.",
    "The pilot remains Polymarket-only, with conditional fee scenarios and no actual fills or funded portfolio return.",
    "Assymetrix supplied the wider market catalog/history workflow; project weather and books supply these repricing observations."
  ],
  "quoteEpisodeDevelopment": {
    "scope": "Synthetic sampled positive quote episodes only; gaps/unknown evidence break continuity",
    "observationSpanIsContinuousExecutableDuration": false,
    "historicalObservationQualified": false
  },
  "holdout": {
    "protocolVersion": "weather-holdout-20260909-v1",
    "status": "proposed-data-and-evaluation-rules; signal/calendar/collection-not-started",
    "plannedTrainingDates": 28,
    "plannedCalibrationDates": 14,
    "plannedEvaluationDates": 28,
    "plannedCities": 7,
    "calendarPurgeDatesBetweenBlocks": 3,
    "actualDependencyPurgeAlsoRequired": true,
    "completedEvaluationDates": 0
  },
  "newAssymetrixRequests": 0,
  "newNativeRequests": 0,
  "historicalExportsReceived": 0,
  "historicalArbitrageSurvivalRate": null,
  "tradeReady": false,
  "articleOrWebsiteUpdated": false,
  "providerMessageSent": false,
  "tradeSubmitted": false,
  "reportSHA256": "ffa5880efc59559114af4bfa27f31d198d9db241bbdde6746aa899d11cdc8f5f",
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