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Research
Research from a live market-making book on Polymarket: settlement mechanics, microstructure, and the numbers behind both.
July 2026 Resolution risk is the mispriced variable UMA settlement mechanics, with case studies. July 2026 Anatomy of a thin-book loss An honest post-mortem on adverse selection and sizing in prediction-market microstructure. August 2026 Why uncertainty makes market making more expensive How tiered fees change the cost of providing prices across prediction markets.
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