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Research
Research on prediction-market settlement, execution, and fees, drawn from a live weather book and historical cross-venue data.
September 2026 Same weather label, different payout Why the settlement source changes the statistic a weather model must predict. July 2026 Resolution risk is the mispriced variable UMA settlement mechanics, with case studies. July 2026 Anatomy of a thin-book loss An honest post-mortem on adverse selection and sizing in prediction-market microstructure. August 2026 Why uncertainty makes market making more expensive How tiered fees change the cost of providing prices across prediction markets.
New research by email. No noise.
If your desk is looking at event markets, the audit pays for itself in avoided mistakes.
Book an intro call or write to dejan@brocode.rs